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EARLY ACCESS 2026 Climate projections, localized. localized. 45 400+ 0.25° 5 8,000+ B E R K E L E Y E A R T H Synthesis transforms global climate models into actionable, city-level temperature projections, bias- corrected against observed data and ready for real-world decision-making. CMIP6 MODELS MODEL RUNS DOWNSCALED RESOLUTION SSP EMISSIONS SCENARIOS GLOBAL CITIES synthesis.berkeleyearth.org | Data currently in pre-release. Peer review forthcoming. H OW I T WO R KS Synthesis bridges the gap between global climate modeling and the local- scale data that practitioners need. From Global Models to Local Projections Raw CMIP6 climate models are reasonably accurate at global scales, but diverge significantly at the local level, where decisions about infrastructure, risk, and policy are actually made. Synthesis incorporates the full breadth of available CMIP6 model runs, not just a curated subset, and applies bias correction and statistical downscaling against Berkeley Earth's high- resolution observational record to produce reliable, localized temperature projections at 0.25° resolution for any region on Earth. INPUT CMIP6 global climate model outputs CORRECTION Bias correction against observations DOWNSCALING Statistical downscaling to city level OUTPUT Actionable local projections TAVG Average temperature projections TMAX Maximum temperature projections TMIN Minimum temperature projections CDD / HDD Cooling and heating degree days Additional Derived Metrics Growing degree days, extreme heat days, frost days, and other application-specific indicators available on request Who Synthesis Is For 📊 Risk & Finance Climate risk assessment, insurance modeling, and physical risk disclosure for assets and portfolios at the city level. 🔬 Research & Academia Localized climate impact studies, model comparison, and temperature-dependent research across disciplines. 🏛️ Policy & Planning Urban heat planning, infrastructure adaptation, public health preparedness, and evidence-based climate policy. © 2026 Berkeley Earth. All data is preliminary and pre-publication. CC BY-NC upon release. berkeleyearth.org → → → CAS E ST U DY Projecting the Evolution of Cooling Demand Under Climate Change in C40 Cities In partnership with C40 Cities · October 2025 C40 Cities used Berkeley Earth's Climate Model Synthesis to project how cooling demand will evolve across its global network of cities through 2050. The study combined Synthesis's bias-corrected, city-level temperature projections with the Demand.ninja energy model to estimate future cooling energy needs, producing one of the first analyses to account for urban heat island effects at this scale. Key Findings 20–30% Average increase in Cooling Degree Days across C40 cities by 2050, with African and European cities facing increases of 50–100%. 117 → 217 Mt Projected growth in CO₂ emissions from cooling demand across C40 cities, equivalent to 3–4x the annual emissions of New York City. 6x Potential increase in cooling electricity demand in African C40 cities when combining climate change with demographic and economic growth. 5 SSPs Analysis run across all five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, enabling city planners to assess cooling needs under a range of futures. The Role of Synthesis Berkeley Earth's Climate Model Synthesis provided the study's climate foundation: downscaled daily temperature projections for each C40 city, corrected for urban heat island effects that standard global models miss. This city-level precision was critical. Cooling demand is driven by local temperature extremes, not regional averages, and small differences in projected daily maximums translate into large differences in energy demand estimates. "Climate projections were based on Berkeley Earth's Climate Model Synthesis, which produces downscaled surface temperature data from CMIP6 GCMs to provide accurate city-level projections. This is important as it provides a correction for urban heat island effects and provides the daily projected temperature." — C40 Cities, "Evolution of the Cooling Demand Under Different Climate Scenarios in C40 Cities," Summary Methodology, p. 3 Reference: C40 Cities, "Evolution of the Cooling Demand Under Different Climate Scenarios in C40 Cities," Summary Methodology, © 2026 Berkeley Earth. All data is preliminary and pre-publication. CC BY-NC upon release. berkeleyearth.org

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ASIP Variables { "source": "pdf", "location": "C40 cities globally, with emphasis on African and European cities", "timeframe": "medium_term", "signals": { "temperature_increase": "20-30% average increase in Cooling Degree Days by 2050, 50-100% in African and European cities", "urban_heat_amplification": "urban heat island effects amplifying local temperature extremes beyond regional averages" }, "system_effects": { "energy_demand_surge": "6x potential increase in cooling electricity demand in African cities", "emissions_acceleration": "117 to 217 Mt CO\u2082 growth from cooling demand alone", "grid_stress_escalation": "massive cooling load increases during peak heat periods" }, "human_consequences": { "energy_affordability_crisis": "exponential cooling costs pricing out vulnerable populations", "heat_mortality_risk": "deadly indoor temperatures when cooling becomes unaffordable", "economic_displacement": "rising energy costs forcing relocation from heat-stressed cities" }, "intensity": 8 } temperature and urban_heat_amplification driving energy_grid_stress and energy_affordability collapse, creating mortality_risk through unaffordable cooling and potential displacement through cost-of-living pressure

Human Consequences Millions face deadly heat exposure as cooling costs surge 6x in African cities and double across major urban centers - those who cannot afford air conditioning die, those who can face financial ruin, driving mass economic displacement from heat-stressed cities

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