← Back to Inventory

Berkley Earth

approved

Knowledge Base ✓

ASIP Generation ✓

Presentation —

Source

Type: pdf

PDF: Synthesis by Berkeley Earth-1.pdf

Source URL: none

Metadata

Title

Provenance URL

Status

Lane Control

Control how this item is routed through EngineHouse workflows

Knowledge Base

Include in EngineHouse Interface semantic search and ASIP knowledge queries

Content Generation

Eligible for ASIP social post and newsletter generation

Presentation

Mark as presentation-ready for future Reveal.js deck generation

Suppress / Exclude

Exclude from all active workflows — archived but kept for audit

Mark as Duplicate

Flag as duplicate content — typically suppressed from generation

Duplicate Of (ID)

Operator Notes

Raw Text

✓ Extracted from PDF — 4510 chars

EARLY ACCESS 2026
Climate projections,
localized.
localized.
45
400+
0.25°
5
8,000+
B E R K E L E Y  E A R T H
Synthesis transforms global climate models into
actionable, city-level temperature projections, bias-
corrected against observed data and ready for real-world
decision-making.
CMIP6
MODELS
MODEL RUNS
DOWNSCALED
RESOLUTION
SSP
EMISSIONS
SCENARIOS
GLOBAL
CITIES
synthesis.berkeleyearth.org
|
Data currently in pre-release. Peer review forthcoming.

H OW  I T  WO R KS
Synthesis bridges the gap between global climate modeling and the local-
scale data that practitioners need.
From Global Models to Local Projections
Raw CMIP6 climate models are reasonably accurate at global scales, but diverge significantly
at the local level, where decisions about infrastructure, risk, and policy are actually made.
Synthesis incorporates the full breadth of available CMIP6 model runs, not just a curated
subset, and applies bias correction and statistical downscaling against Berkeley Earth's high-
resolution observational record to produce reliable, localized temperature projections at 0.25°
resolution for any region on Earth.
INPUT
CMIP6 global climate
model outputs
CORRECTION
Bias correction against
observations
DOWNSCALING
Statistical downscaling to
city level
OUTPUT
Actionable local
projections
TAVG
Average temperature projections
TMAX
Maximum temperature projections
TMIN
Minimum temperature projections
CDD / HDD
Cooling and heating degree days
Additional Derived Metrics
Growing degree days, extreme heat days, frost days, and other application-specific indicators available on request
Who Synthesis Is For
📊
Risk & Finance
Climate risk assessment,
insurance modeling, and physical
risk disclosure for assets and
portfolios at the city level.
🔬
Research & Academia
Localized climate impact studies,
model comparison, and
temperature-dependent research
across disciplines.
🏛️
Policy & Planning
Urban heat planning,
infrastructure adaptation, public
health preparedness, and
evidence-based climate policy.
© 2026 Berkeley Earth. All data is preliminary and pre-publication. CC BY-NC upon release.
berkeleyearth.org
→
→
→

CAS E  ST U DY
Projecting the Evolution of Cooling Demand
Under Climate Change in C40 Cities
In partnership with C40 Cities · October 2025
C40 Cities used Berkeley Earth's Climate Model Synthesis to project how cooling demand will
evolve across its global network of cities through 2050. The study combined Synthesis's
bias-corrected, city-level temperature projections with the Demand.ninja energy model to
estimate future cooling energy needs, producing one of the first analyses to account for
urban heat island effects at this scale.
Key Findings
20–30%
Average increase in Cooling Degree Days across C40
cities by 2050, with African and European cities facing
increases of 50–100%.
117 → 217 Mt
Projected growth in CO₂ emissions from cooling
demand across C40 cities, equivalent to 3–4x the
annual emissions of New York City.
6x
Potential increase in cooling electricity demand in
African C40 cities when combining climate change
with demographic and economic growth.
5 SSPs
Analysis run across all five Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways, enabling city planners to assess cooling
needs under a range of futures.
The Role of Synthesis
Berkeley Earth's Climate Model Synthesis provided the study's climate foundation:
downscaled daily temperature projections for each C40 city, corrected for urban heat island
effects that standard global models miss. This city-level precision was critical. Cooling
demand is driven by local temperature extremes, not regional averages, and small differences
in projected daily maximums translate into large differences in energy demand estimates.
"Climate projections were based on Berkeley Earth's Climate Model Synthesis, which produces downscaled surface
temperature data from CMIP6 GCMs to provide accurate city-level projections. This is important as it provides a
correction for urban heat island effects and provides the daily projected temperature."
— C40 Cities, "Evolution of the Cooling Demand Under Different Climate Scenarios in C40 Cities," Summary Methodology, p. 3
Reference: C40 Cities, "Evolution of the Cooling Demand Under Different Climate Scenarios in C40 Cities," Summary Methodology,
© 2026 Berkeley Earth. All data is preliminary and pre-publication. CC BY-NC upon release.
berkeleyearth.org

4510 chars

ASIP Analysis (generated)

ASIP Variables

{
  "source": "pdf",
  "location": "global cities, focus on C40 network",
  "timeframe": "short_term",
  "signals": {
    "temperature_increase": "20-30% average increase in Cooling Degree Days by 2050, 50-100% in African and European cities",
    "urban_heat_island": "city-level temperature extremes beyond regional averages",
    "energy_demand_spike": "6x potential increase in cooling electricity demand in African cities"
  },
  "system_effects": {
    "energy_grid_stress": "massive cooling demand surge across global cities",
    "emissions_feedback": "117 \u2192 217 Mt CO\u2082 growth from cooling alone",
    "infrastructure_load": "electricity systems unprepared for 6x demand increases"
  },
  "human_consequences": {
    "affordability_collapse": "electricity costs surge as cooling becomes survival necessity",
    "mortality_risk": "heat-vulnerable populations priced out of life-saving cooling",
    "energy_poverty": "cooling becomes luxury good in cities where it's survival requirement"
  },
  "intensity": 8
}

temperature drives urban_heat_island amplification, creating extreme_weather_events in cities that trigger energy_grid_stress and economic_breakdown through cooling_demand_explosion, leading to mass_death through energy_poverty and affordability_collapse

Human Consequences

Create Presentation

Generate a Reveal.js deck from this content

Facebook Posts (0 posted, 0 queued, 1 draft)

1 candidate

#1 draft cooling affordability crisis

Rising electricity costs from cooling demand surge will price vulnerable city residents out of life-saving air conditioning

948 chars

Instagram Posts (0 posted, 0 queued, 1 draft)

1 candidate

#1 draft cooling affordability crisis

Rising electricity costs from cooling demand surge will price vulnerable city residents out of life-saving air conditioning

727 chars

Mailing Posts (0 posted, 0 queued, 1 draft)

1 candidate

#1 draft cooling affordability crisis

Rising electricity costs from cooling demand surge will price vulnerable city residents out of life-saving air conditioning

Subject: Your income will determine if you survive summer heat

New climate projections from Berkeley Earth reveal a deadly equation forming in cities worldwide: as temperatures rise, cooling becomes a matter of survival, but surging electricity costs are pricing vulnerable residents out of life-saving air conditioning.

The numbers paint a stark picture. By 2050, cooling demand will increase 20-30% across major cities, with African and European cities facing 50-100% increases. In African cities specifically, when demographic and economic growth combine with climate change, cooling electricity demand could increase 6x.

This surge in demand will drive electricity costs beyond what many families can afford, just as cooling transitions from comfort to survival necessity. The Berkeley Earth study, conducted with C40 Cities, projects cooling emissions will nearly double from 117 to 217 million tons of CO₂ across major cities - equivalent to adding 3-4 New York Cities worth of emissions just from people trying not to die from heat.

We're creating a world of energy poverty where air conditioning becomes a luxury good that determines who lives and dies during heat waves. As city temperatures soar beyond human tolerance, your bank account balance will determine your survival odds.

The climate crisis isn't coming - it's here, and it's being priced into your electricity bill.

1390 chars

Created: 4/12/2026, 7:39:57 AM

Updated: 4/13/2026, 12:49:07 PM

Record ID: 2

Workflows

Ingest auto-triggers generation. Regenerate replaces all existing drafts.

Post Summary

Facebook

draft

queued

posted

rej

Instagram

draft

queued

posted

rej

Mailing

draft

queued

posted

rej

Image

nic-y-c-WzazSaQF1F8-unsplash.jpg